Assessing potential risks and being properly equipped for the situation are both important. But there is another aspect of risk management -- the ability to make good critical decisions. Hands-on experience counts and the best way to get that is by taking the trouble to do some
real time emergency simulations under controlled conditions.
Almost any serious Drive failure can be simulated by dropping off one fin from the Drive and experiencing what will actually happen (run around for a mile or so and get a good feel for the rhythm). Try a simple repair procedure like removing and installing a fin on the water. Pull the rudder up, put the paddle in the water and test your maneuverability in both directions. Try some different techniques while you have the chance. "Fall" overboard and get back in. Knowing what you can expect can help you make the best choices.
Here's a scenario:
Joe Blow is pedaling along offshore in active water against the current. Everything is going well ... until he suddenly breaks a cable on his Drive. Having read about this, he tries to continue pedaling but his boat starts rolling -- he fears he may capsize. He elects to break out his emergency parts kit (which he stores in the hatch) and make the repair, since he has worked on his Drive successfully at home.
While his Drive is in his lap, he fumbles with his cold, wet hands, drops the part he needs -- it rolls right out the empty drivewell. As he instinctively reaches for it, mind focused on recovering the part, an unseen swell knocks him off balance -- he falls out, the boat capsizes, the untethered Drive goes down to Davy's locker and so far a lack of experience and poor decisions have combined to put him in quite a pickle.
But he has read up on re-entry procedures, rights his boat (paddle still in place), gets half way in and the boat capsizes again. Uh-oh, it wasn't supposed to work this way. Cold, tired and drifting, he must try to keep sufficient presence of mind to try to figure how to get back in the boat. He finally figures it out, when to his horror, he discovers his open hatch has admitted enough water into the boat that it is no longer stable. He is in serious trouble now and thankfully he has an EPIRB. He turns it on and wouldn't you know, he hasn't inspected it in two years and the batteries have leaked and corroded the terminals.
Joe got in trouble here despite his equipment and risk assessment. because of a series of poor decisions due to over confidence in his abilities and lack of experience. Fortunately for him, somebody rescued him before he drowned, and towed his half sunk boat in.
This scenario is a compilation of several that have actually happened. Our man Joe thought he was prepared, but some of his bad decisions are fairly obvious to us as we reflect upon the events:
1. He never previously tried operating his Drive with one fin (easy to simulate) and was spooked by the rocking motion. He therefore missed the opportunity to continue pedaling home without further incident.
2. He failed to plug the drivewell in his ill-advised preparation to work on the Drive.
3. He never tried working on his Drive in the water and assumed he could do everything he could do at home on the bench.
4. He failed to tether his gear.
5. He opened his hatch at sea in unsafe conditions without first looking around and observing his orientation. Then with his diminished presence of mind, he forgot about it.
6. He never actually attempted a capsize recovery until this fateful moment.
7. He failed to insure his equipment was in proper working order.
You can't prepare for every eventuality, but you can establish basic procedures that can effectively mitigate a wide range of potential emergencies.
IMO, the most important elements in risk management are 1. hands on experience to explore the limits and capabilities of your gear and 2. know and practice emergency procedures before the next real one happens.
